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DTN Midday Grain Comments     06/19 11:12

   All Grains Lower at Midday 

   Trade is lower at midday, with corn bull spreading in play.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are firmer with the Dow 35 higher. The dollar 
index is 25 lower. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are mixed with 
crude 0.30 lower. Livestock trade is mostly lower. Precious metals are weaker 
with gold 2.40 lower.


   Corn trade is 1 to 4 cents lower at midday with trade seeing light bull 
spreading as choppy rangebound trade continues in the short term. The forecast 
looks to continue the recent pattern into the first part of the week, before 
potential pattern changes into the end of the month with warmer temps expected 
to boost growth from the weekend on. The weekly ethanol report showed 
production down 15,000 barrels per day, with stocks down 189,000 barrels, with 
ethanol futures fading post report. Corn basis remains on a firmer trend. On 
the July nearby chart support is the 10-day at $4.35, with the new high printed 
Monday at $4.64 resistance. 


   Soybean trade is 3 to 5 cents lower at midday with trade fading again as we 
remain just below the highs left on Monday. Meal is $2.50 to $3.50 lower and 
oil is 10 to 20 points higher. Crush margins remain solidly positive overall 
with oil strength the short term story. World export demand remains slow, and 
the South American currencies cheap but firmer early in the week. Field work 
will likely be slowed again in many areas with more insurance days passing for 
soybeans before potential more open weather at the end of the month with trade 
trying to hold on to acres with November near the contract highs. The July 
chart support is the 200-day at $9.07, with next resistance the $9.21 recent 


   Wheat trade is 4 to 9 cents lower at midday with harvest pressure pushing 
the winter wheats lower with little other fresh news. The Kansas City/Chicago 
spread is swing back to Kansas City this morning, narrowing by a couple cents. 
The heavy rains are slated more for the north and east parts of the winter 
wheat belt while harvest should build elsewhere, with heat expected to help 
push things along to the west. The dollar moved back below 97 on the index as 
well with the feed expected to cut rates today. Black Sea area weather remains 
mixed with world values soft. Hard red wheat is working into feed rations in 
some areas with the bounce in corn values, and reduced quality may increase 
feeding on that front. On the July Kansas City chart, support is the 100-day at 
$4.51. with resistance again the 20-day at 4.59, which we are testing at midday.


   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser
He can be reached at 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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